Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,180,375$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,235,984.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,235,984.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68,922$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,384.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,384.1\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $924,273$ on 2020-05-04

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,957$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,204.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(70,204.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,003$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(96.5 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,842.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,842.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $31,924$ on 2020-05-04

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $7,197$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(480 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,231.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,231.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $200$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(224.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,356$ on 2020-05-04

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,235$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,446.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,446.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $346$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(38.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 26.7)}}\) (asimptote \(340.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $6,118$ on 2020-05-04

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $24,905$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,896.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(53,896.0\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,271$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(91.4 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,179.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,179.7\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,187$ on 2020-05-04

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,178$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(81.3 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.59 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(116.4\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $973$ on 2020-05-04

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,668$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(167 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,782.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,782.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.22 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(83.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $723$ on 2020-05-04

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $471$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(725.9\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-04

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $424$ on 2020-05-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Costa Rica recovered 40%
Cuba recovered 15%

Costa Rica

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $742$ on 2020-05-04

Best fit exponential: \(151 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{718.5}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 24.0)}}\) (asimptote \(718.5\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6$ on 2020-05-04

Active

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $337$ on 2020-05-04