Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,180,375$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.1 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,235,984.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.5)}}\) (asimptote \(1,235,984.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $68,922$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(3.41 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.025t}\) (doubling rate \(12.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{73,384.1}{1 + 10^{-0.059 (t - 38.0)}}\) (asimptote \(73,384.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $924,273$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,957$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.77 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(12.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{70,204.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(70,204.0\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,003$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(96.5 \times 10^{0.033t}\) (doubling rate \(9.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,842.2}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 40.2)}}\) (asimptote \(4,842.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $31,924$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,197$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(480 \times 10^{0.022t}\) (doubling rate \(13.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,231.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(8,231.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $200$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{224.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(224.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,356$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,235$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,446.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 37.6)}}\) (asimptote \(9,446.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $346$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(38.5 \times 10^{0.021t}\) (doubling rate \(14.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{340.6}{1 + 10^{-0.060 (t - 26.7)}}\) (asimptote \(340.6\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $6,118$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $24,905$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(639 \times 10^{0.034t}\) (doubling rate \(8.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{53,896.0}{1 + 10^{-0.045 (t - 48.6)}}\) (asimptote \(53,896.0\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,271$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(91.4 \times 10^{0.038t}\) (doubling rate \(8.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,179.7}{1 + 10^{-0.063 (t - 31.8)}}\) (asimptote \(3,179.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,187$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,178$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(81.3 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.7\) days)
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.59 \times 10^{0.024t}\) (doubling rate \(12.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{116.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 31.1)}}\) (asimptote \(116.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $973$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,668$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(167 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,782.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 28.4)}}\) (asimptote \(1,782.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $69$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.22 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{83.0}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 27.8)}}\) (asimptote \(83.0\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $723$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $471$ on 2020-05-04
Best fit exponential: \(10.3 \times 10^{0.032t}\) (doubling rate \(9.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{725.9}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 46.8)}}\) (asimptote \(725.9\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-04
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $424$ on 2020-05-04
